Q NOTES # 299: Two More Weeks

Veep Mike Puntz is the most recent living proof of the rule "It never pays to be Cheez Doodle's poodle."

Sometimes a news report only confirms things that basic common sense already told us were true. The phony acts of contrition we're seeing from Cheezy are a case in point. Nobody who's been paying attention since 2016 could possibly take that shit seriously, because everything he says and does is some kind of role-playing designed to con a TV audience of mostly halfwits.

Cheezy also clarifies that he won't attend Joe's inauguration. Now there's another surprise, not. Meanwhile, reasonable decent people are relieved to know this particular turd won't be floating in the punch bowl on the 20th.

Fun news of the day: Cheezy's deplorable MAGA supporters are being identified and placed in the spotlight. Some are already being fired (if they actually had jobs), and others may be tracked down and taken into custody.

Worthless snot bubbles like Mo Brooks and Matt Gaetz were totally, really gung ho for armed rebellion against American democracy until the shit hit the fan. Now they're trying to pin the blame on groups that are AGAINST Cheezy. They must think everybody's as stupid as the assholes who voted for them.

You know, life's a bitch, and then you die.

Question of the hour: Now that Twitter has officially banned Cheezy for the rest of his time on earth, and the House is inching toward articles of impeachment again, what are the chances that Cheez Doodle tries to carve out a resignation agreement? Doesn't seem likely, but the doors are being opened on possible fresh criminal charges being added to the ones already awaiting his departure from office. He can't risk any kind of extreme move that could give twenty (R) Senators the political cover they need to convict him in a Senate trial. No Twitter and no more armed insurrections? Hmm... his opportunities seem to be dwindling.

Q NOTES 294

DAILY KOS has the best idea I've seen so far re: managing the chaos being planned by (R)s for Wednesday, 6 January. Madam speaker should begin by requiring every House member to state whether or not they believe the election in their state was legitimate. If (R) members from swing states like PA, GA or AZ assert the election they won was fraudulent, Madam Speaker won't seat them during the joint session. This seems like a simple solution to me, assuming incarceration isn't an available option.

More from KOS on the seating issue.

Update 1: There may be at least six Senate (R)s who will vote against sedition. Question: Has Cheez Doodle really been able to con so many congressional (R)s into buying his election fraud scam, or is he the one who's living in a fantasy world kept intact by scheming flunkies? To put it another way, who's conning who? 

The third possibility is that Cheezy and his accomplices all know this is total bullshit, but they just enjoy playing (R) voters for suckers and fools.

Update: Cheezy lost the popular vote twice, so he should be impeached twice. The criminal activity was recorded for posterity.

Underachieving

The most recent calculation of the BNSR (Basic National Stupidity Rate) was 48.4 percent. According to BNSR rules, any Republican running for national office should be able to secure 48.4 percent of the popular vote. The final tallies haven't been recorded yet, but it's starting to look like Willard M. Romney not only lost in November, he couldn't even meet minimum performance standards. Epic fail.

Final Thoughts on E-2012

In the 21st century, there have been two elections in which one of the major party candidates was the incumbent president. The first occurred in 2004, Bush 43 vs. John Kerry, and the second one was last night. Since early October, I've been interested in comparing 2004 and 2012 to find parallels. The election in 2004 was a heartbreaker, and I hoped that 2012 would be a mirror image of 2004 that would break the hearts of Republicans. As things worked out, it was. Obama's share of the popular vote will apparently be close to Bush's 50.8 percent, and his electoral vote margin will be greater. Some of the other similarities are spooky, such as a first debate moderated by Jim Lehrer in which the incumbent performed poorly and allowed the challenger to gain a tie in the polls.

Epic prediction fail: Karl Rove, Dick Morris, and the Rasmussen and Gallup polls. The new king of national election predictors might be Nate Silver. When all the counting is done, his election eve projections at FiveThirtyEight may be right on the money.

The exit polls indicate the Republican Party is getting older and whiter... and smaller.

The tea party took some hits yesterday, but like an infestation of fire ants, it's almost impossible to get rid of them completely. Increasing the Democratic majority in the Senate was almost as important as keeping Mittster and Ryan out of the White House.

The importance of Joe Biden and Chris Christie in helping Obama win should never be overlooked. Biden's success in ridiculing Ryan in the VP debate provided a significant boost to the spirits of Democrats, and Christie's willingness to partner with Obama in the Sandy aftermath was a punch in the gut to Romney and the Republicans.

If Florida ever finishes counting its votes, the final total should show Obama won the popular vote by about 52-48. If so, that would validate the latest calculation of the Basic National Stupidity Rate (currently 48.4 percent).

Real? Mitt?

People keep asking when we'll see the REAL Mitt Romney. There is no "real" Mitt Romney. There is no Mitt Romney period, for that matter. The motherfucker is entirely a figment of his own imagination.

Republicans know Romney is a worthless lying motherfucker; they don't care. They're voting against that n-----. Democrats know he's a worthless lying motherfucker, but they're voting for Obama. If we left things right there, I'd be willing to take my chances.

The problem is that about five percent of the people we allow to vote are detached from anything resembling political reality until a few weeks before the election, and even then their interest is superficial. That creates a problem, because a bunch of them have decided they like Moderate Manager Mitt, the grinning white guy seeking bipartisan solutions to economic problems. They'll vote for him even though that guy doesn't exist and never has. They don't have enough common sense to ask themselves: Was Willard lying then, or is he lying now?

Rummy was stuck at about 46 percent when he was running as a Tea Party social conservative. For all intents and purposes, the election was settled. Then the sleazy fuck unveiled the new Mitt 6.0 in the first debate, and things haven't been the same since. Most of the blame falls on Obama, who wasn't ready to take a bat and do a Joe Pesci on him when it could've nipped things in the bud.

I've had to sweat out two football games that were entirely too close for comfort, and it looks like the election will be the same. The Democrats need a Johnny Fuckin Football.

News Digest 25 September

There's a lot of interesting political news today.

The National Journal has an analysis of the current state of the race by Charlie Cook.

The Washington Post reports new polls showing Obama ahead in Florida and Ohio.

Republicans can't tolerate the idea that a majority of Americans (a) don't care much for them, or (b) hate their guts. Their self-esteem is based on a sick fantasy that every time they state an opinion, they're speaking for the American people. The polls that show the despised Obama ahead of Willard are driving them crazy, and now they realize that it's all a big conspiracy by the liberal media. So one enterprising RWer has devised a method for recalibrating polls to reflect the huge Romney leads that actually exist in reality.

Still another poll indicates that Willard's support among old geezers is fading.

Finally, a lot of things aren't adding up for Willard these days, including his plan to revise the tax system to accomplish some pie-in-the-sky economic recovery.

The Ides of September

According to an article I was reading, since 1948, every candidate who led the polls in mid-September went on to win the presidential election in November. Today is the 12th, not quite mid-month, and Obama is leading in the polls as of yesterday. According to the Goddard Political Wire updates I receive as Facebook news feeds, Obama is leading in Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico. If those are valid leads, and they hold up, this one's in lockdown.

Meanwhile, Willard looks like he's still trying to firm up support with the GOP base instead of broadening his appeal to moderates and independents.

There's no way I'm jumping to conclusions about the outcome based on established historical tendencies, because Obama dumped a big one in the trash in 2008 -- the one about white males always winning. But I hope the pattern holds one more time.

Added 7:18 PM same day: Ooops, even Fox News has Obama ahead.

Bruce Bartlett Prediction

At least one guy is willing to predict that Obama will win easily.

Take two?

Romney pulling his advertising in Michigan and Pennsylvania? I'd like to believe I can go ahead and color those states blue on my interactive Electoral College projection maps.

Marco

The subject under discussion among RWers in an online discussion forum was Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and why Mittens must choose him for the VP slot. Although it was not requested, I threw in my own opinion as follows:

The only reason I think Mittens might bypass Rubio is that with him on the ticket, Mitt immediately becomes 2nd banana, just as McCain became an afterthought after he selected Palin. If the GOP has nominated you grudgingly (as McCain was, and Willard will be), you're just asking to be ignored if you put a rising star onstage with you.

The Early Going

Members of the right-wing lunatic fringe have been gagging up hairballs and pissing blood ever since the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare was revealed. A few of them are strutting around proclaiming that Willard will repeal the law next year. Will he or won't he? Probably not if this pattern holds up.

It's Willard this time. Sorry, Rick.

Willard beat the Prince of Dork-ness in the Illinois primary, and the Republican flea circus continues to look like a slug on a Texas patio, inching along and leaving a slime trail behind. At this point, my interest in the race is limited: I'm waiting to see if the eventual winner has been mortally wounded during the process. There's no doubt in my mind that Willard no longer has the image of the White Knight of Strength and Virtue he seemed to have late last year, and his opponents aren't finished with him yet.

The South Carolina Game

In South Carolina, the clock is running in the fourth quarter and Newtered, once trailing the Romney juggernaut by three scores, now needs only a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to tie and send the game into overtime. Can he pull this one out with an efficient two-minute drill, or is he just another turnover waiting to happen ?

Gingrich is a master of hyperbole, and has been predicting the death of conservatism if Romney wins the South Carolina primary. He's also a dangerous egomaniac, predicting that if he wins, it will change history -- he'll triumph in November and immediately begin the process of reshaping America to suit his own grand fantasies.

Republicans are most dangerous when they're marching in lockstep, sweeping across the landscape and crushing everything under their boots. The longer they remain fragmented, the better for the country. I haven't been especially impressed with Obama, and I'm not sure he deserves a second term -- but he still looks like a safer bet than any Republican in the race. Huntsman had promise, but when he left, he took all the good silverware with him. Now, the best of a bad bunch is Romney. Assuming Willard has the balls to slam the door on the evangelunicals after his election, he might be tolerable as president. I can't say the same for Gingrich or Sanitorium, either of whom would be a disaster combined with GOP congressional majorities.

The best scenario at this point is for Romney to win the nomination after a long, brutal struggle. Newter, S-Rick, and Pappy need to win enough primary support to encourage them to hang around and keep things in chaos... but not enough to take the nomination. P-Rick needs to finish out his term as governor, then look for work as a TV evangelist. In November, Obama faces off against a wounded Romney, who has at best the enthusiastic support of maybe 40 percent of GOP voters. Flip a coin and call it, heads or tails.   

Mitt Math

Trying to predict the results of a national election ten months before the voting is stupid, but I've still been trying to sort out the possibilities.

Like most people, I think Obama will have a hard time winning in November. Every Republican hates him, and he's disappointed most Democrats by continuing to try crawling into bed with Republicans in Congress long after it was clear they hated his fucking guts. My crystal ball as of today (January 8th) tells me that Obama can only win if (a) the economy continues its recent pattern of incremental improvement, and (b) the GOP nominee is someone that drives nearly all the independents so crazy that they decide to stick with the devil they know. I think both conditions must exist for Obama to have a chance in the Electoral College.

Here's where Mitt Math comes in. There are two things that we know are absolutely true. First, Republicans don't fall in love; they fall in line. Second, Republicans as a rule hate Ns even more than they hate Mormons. I live among Texas Republicans of the yahoo variety, and have witnessed both of these truths as part of my lifetime of experience.

Right now, Perry is sucking hind tit, barely ahead of Huntsman. There are still four Republicans actually in the race -- Willard, Pappy, the Newt, and S-Rick -- but Gingrich is fading and Pappy is too weird in too many ways to win a single primary. Willard is projected to win New Hampshire, and early polls show he might even win South Carolina. If he does, that blows the last remaining reason for Santorum's existence out of the water -- South Carolina is supposed to be in the same class as Mississippi and Alabama as a bastion of cultural conservatism (evangelunacy), and religious crazies should be S-Rick's natural constituency.

So let's say Mitt fights his way through and eventually wins the GOP nomination. He will have been forced to steer hard to the right to win states like South Carolina, but after the convention, when everyone has signed on the dotted line, he won't be dragging around a loose cannon like Palin as his running mate. My gut feeling is that pragmatic Mitt will replace pandering Mitt, and he'll make course corrections toward the center. He'll get away with it because Republicans hate the N even more than they hate the Mormon. It'll be too late to rescind the nomination, so the voters will fall in line as they always do. Given a choice between moderate Mitt and Obama, the independents switch back to the (R) column on the ballot. Obama's looking for work a year from now.

That's why I'll be watching the results in South Carolina. If Santorum really does emerge as the Anybody But Romney choice and wins the nomination, Obama still has money in the game. That'll be important if the GOP holds their House majority and takes over the Senate. 

The Other Rick

Rick Santorum, henceforth known as S-Rick to distinguish him from P-Rick, is no longer The Other Rick. Based on his showing in Iowa, he's now Big Rick, and Perry is The Other Rick. It looks like P-Rick will stay in the race indefinitely, since he realized that he can be out cruising the highways for months at a time, and nobody in Texas misses his sorry ass.

Santorum is one of those weird religious zealots who believe that abortion, school prayer and gay marriage are the most important issues facing America today. He runs as a "family values" candidate, meaning his goal is to make his particular religious beliefs the law of the land. As a family values guy, he appeals to the 50 percent of Republicans who are hardcore evangelunicals and dominate the party even more than the tea people. The big wheels in the religious right-wing hierarchy are getting together to work out a plan to consolidate behind an anti-Romney candidate. As a Mormon, Mitts is viewed as a member of a Satanic cult and can never be allowed near the presidency lest he convert America to his evil ways.

It has been easy to ignore S-Rick since he's spent most of the campaign thus far barely casting a shadow while the publicity went to Bachmann, Perrito, Sugar Cain and Gingrich. Now he's starting to accumulate a little clout because he's just as fanatical as Bachmann (without appearing insane) and Perrito (but able to express an articulate thought). The big cheeses in the evangelunacy visualize a large majority of Americans fighting for spots at the head of the line so they can vote for this asshole.

One of the bedrock principles of my political philosophy is separation of church and state. I don't begrudge the right of religious people to believe any nonsense they choose to believe, but keep it in church and keep it out of my face. If the fucking evangelunicals are right, and if S-Rick wins the GOP nomination and subsequently the White House, he'll be in position to move the nation toward the Christian theocracy that his supporters dream about. That sucks.

10 Grand

Last night while Mrs. bee was babysitting at our daughter's house, I was channel surfing, trying to find something worth watching on TV. I landed on ABC just in time to see El Perrito and Mittenful going after each other during a GOP debate held in Iowa. Perrito was running through his usual boring condemnation of "Obamacare" and was trying to link Mittens to socialized medicine. By now, we've either heard or read about this line of attack approximately a thousand times, and I was ready to press the button on the remote when I heard Mittens telling Perrito he was a lying, worthless piece of shit. He didn't use those words, though -- he challenged Perrito to a friendly bet instead. Something along the lines of 10,000 dollars that such-and-such statement wasn't in a book he'd written, despite the bogus accusations of lying motherfucker Ricky Perry. I yawned and switched to a rerun of Everybody Loves Raymond.

Today, I was scanning various political blogs to make sure the world didn't come to an end while I was sleeping, and discovered that Romney's tongue-in-cheek offer of a 10,000 dollar wager is the political gaffe of the century, proves he's out of touch with the reality of life among the proles, and effectively ended his candidacy. Wow -- history was made, the fate of the nation shifted radically, and by sheer coincidence, I witnessed the whole thing.

There's a large segment of the American population that needs to seriously consider getting a life and stop taking trivial shit so seriously.

Getting down to the newt-cuttin'

There's growing consensus on political blogs that we should start taking Newter seriously as a candidate (and possibly the next president). This seemed impossible to imagine for me as recently as a few months ago, but people who blog for reasons other than to kill time are convincing me that I was wrong. Real wrong.

Since the beginning of the 2012 presidential election campaign, I thought Mittenful was the Republican most likely to beat Obama, assuming he could win the nomination. My personal preference was Huntsman, mainly because he'd served in Obama's administration and seemed thoughtful and intelligent (unlike all the other fuckwads running). I knew, though, that Huntsman was just killing time, the way I'm killing time as I type this. Republicans aren't looking for thoughtful and intelligent this year.

I assumed if Perrito got into the race, he'd be the top challenger to Mittens and might even win the hearts of enough typical GOP yahoos to steal the nomination. I believed that -- until his fuckups started piling up so rapidly that even rubes tuned him out.

I can't take Pie Daddy seriously because I believe Obama will probably be our last black president for awhile, and I'm still amazed that he has any traction at all in his party. I put Sugar Cain in the same category as The Other Rick, Pappy Ron Paul, and Moochele: people who are in the race because their egos made them delusional. I didn't assign Newter a grade that would equal Bachmann's (an F minus), but assumed his history of cheating on his wives would keep him in the middle of the pack at best.

The success of Pie Daddy and Newter proves that Republicans despise Mormon Mitt and don't really give a shit about the morality of other Republicans. All that fucking crap about the sanctity of marriage and family values ? Just more of their ridiculous bullshit.

Field Theories

The field of candidates for the Republican nomination has not dwindled at the rate that I expected last summer. So far, only Tim Pawlenty has actually dropped out of the race after officially joining it. Hucklebuck and Wondermom decided to stick with their day jobs as TV entertainers. The big boy from NJ checked to the raiser, then folded.

There are two Republicans running who would probably make good presidents: Mittenful and Huntsman. Willard has the steady support of roughly 25-26 percent of Republicans. Huntsman, my personal choice for the nomination, is barely making a blip on the radar screen.

At least 70 percent of Republicans want the next president to be Sugar Cain, Ricky Retardo, Newter, the Other Rick, Moochele, or Granddaddy Ron. Did I leave anyone out ? Don't their preferences tell us everything we really need to know about typical Republican voters ?

No sane person can imagine Santorum, Bachmann or Paul as the nominee, and they're apparently only hanging around for the free box lunches. If Republicans weren't totally fucked up, Pie Daddy would also be in that group. How many times does Perry have to make a goddamned ass out of himself on TV before his meltdown is complete ? Gingrich, the serial adulterer, is rumored to be making a mini-comeback and should collect the dividends if Pie Daddy finally sees the handwriting on the wall and quits.

Of the entire gang of miscreants, the only one who looks like a realistic threat to unseat the incumbent is Willard Romney. Are there any recorded instances of a Republican winning a presidential election when 7 out of 10 voters in his party don't like him ? I imagine Obama's staffers are wondering if they'll have a chance to find out.

Same Old, Same Old...

Everybody running for president in 2012 has a plan that will create jobs, or so they keep telling us. Different day, same shit.

The next president will be Obama, Mittenful or Perrito. Their plans are the only ones worth wasting time discussing. The godfather of pizza is trying to pass off dog turds as a pepperoni and anchovies special with his 9-9-9 scam. How fucking dumb does he think Americans are ?

Surging ? On paper, maybe.

The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that the pizza guy is the newest frontrunner in the race for the 2012 Republican nomination. According to reports, he has the support of 27 percent of prospective Republican primary voters, leading runner-up Mittenful by about four points and Perrito by eleven.

My theory is that Herman will never win the party's nomination, much less the presidency. Based on personal observation, I think there are significant numbers of Republican yahoos who hate the N in the White House, but don't want to be accused of bigotry. Telling a pollster that they'll vote for Herman Cain helps them feel better about themselves: "See, this proves I'm not really a racist. I hate Obama because of his far-left ideas, not because he's a N."

The pizza guy understands marketing strategies, and knows there's a demand in the Republican party for blacks who advocate a radical right-wing agenda. Clarence, Condi , now Cain. All have names that start with C as in Conservative. Colin would still be in the group if he'd been radical enough.

Herman's problem is that people who are actually willing to cast votes for a black candidate in a national election are probably not going to choose someone with his political experience and philosophy. Maybe America will prove me wrong, but I doubt it. Still, Herman can ride the tide and enjoy it while it lasts.