Wednesday, September 12, 2012

The Ides of September

According to an article I was reading, since 1948, every candidate who led the polls in mid-September went on to win the presidential election in November. Today is the 12th, not quite mid-month, and Obama is leading in the polls as of yesterday. According to the Goddard Political Wire updates I receive as Facebook news feeds, Obama is leading in Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico. If those are valid leads, and they hold up, this one's in lockdown.

Meanwhile, Willard looks like he's still trying to firm up support with the GOP base instead of broadening his appeal to moderates and independents.

There's no way I'm jumping to conclusions about the outcome based on established historical tendencies, because Obama dumped a big one in the trash in 2008 -- the one about white males always winning. But I hope the pattern holds one more time.

Added 7:18 PM same day: Ooops, even Fox News has Obama ahead.

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KEY FACT

Dedicated to Jim Ferguson. If you don't know who Jim Ferguson is, you (a) haven't seen The Missouri Breaks, or (b) have an inadequate ability to fully assimilate movie trivia.