In the 21st century, there have been two elections in which one of the major party candidates was the incumbent president. The first occurred in 2004, Bush 43 vs. John Kerry, and the second one was last night. Since early October, I've been interested in comparing 2004 and 2012 to find parallels. The election in 2004 was a heartbreaker, and I hoped that 2012 would be a mirror image of 2004 that would break the hearts of Republicans. As things worked out, it was. Obama's share of the popular vote will apparently be close to Bush's 50.8 percent, and his electoral vote margin will be greater. Some of the other similarities are spooky, such as a first debate moderated by Jim Lehrer in which the incumbent performed poorly and allowed the challenger to gain a tie in the polls.
Epic prediction fail: Karl Rove, Dick Morris, and the Rasmussen and Gallup polls. The new king of national election predictors might be Nate Silver. When all the counting is done, his election eve projections at FiveThirtyEight may be right on the money.
The exit polls indicate the Republican Party is getting older and whiter... and smaller.
The tea party took some hits yesterday, but like an infestation of fire ants, it's almost impossible to get rid of them completely. Increasing the Democratic majority in the Senate was almost as important as keeping Mittster and Ryan out of the White House.
The importance of Joe Biden and Chris Christie in helping Obama win should never be overlooked. Biden's success in ridiculing Ryan in the VP debate provided a significant boost to the spirits of Democrats, and Christie's willingness to partner with Obama in the Sandy aftermath was a punch in the gut to Romney and the Republicans.
If Florida ever finishes counting its votes, the final total should show Obama won the popular vote by about 52-48. If so, that would validate the latest calculation of the Basic National Stupidity Rate (currently 48.4 percent).
Epic prediction fail: Karl Rove, Dick Morris, and the Rasmussen and Gallup polls. The new king of national election predictors might be Nate Silver. When all the counting is done, his election eve projections at FiveThirtyEight may be right on the money.
The exit polls indicate the Republican Party is getting older and whiter... and smaller.
The tea party took some hits yesterday, but like an infestation of fire ants, it's almost impossible to get rid of them completely. Increasing the Democratic majority in the Senate was almost as important as keeping Mittster and Ryan out of the White House.
The importance of Joe Biden and Chris Christie in helping Obama win should never be overlooked. Biden's success in ridiculing Ryan in the VP debate provided a significant boost to the spirits of Democrats, and Christie's willingness to partner with Obama in the Sandy aftermath was a punch in the gut to Romney and the Republicans.
If Florida ever finishes counting its votes, the final total should show Obama won the popular vote by about 52-48. If so, that would validate the latest calculation of the Basic National Stupidity Rate (currently 48.4 percent).
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